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LME cash aluminium closed at $3,113.50/t on 30 October, up 1.4% on the day and back above $3,100 after dipping below $3,000 in mid-October for the first time since December. Three-month metal was $3,078/t. Cash traded $35.50 above three-month, a backwardation that signals buyers wanting metal now. LME stocks were 231,675 t, with 13,750 t of warrants cancelled for delivery.

Regions are pulling apart. Rotterdam duty-paid premiums were $560–590/t on 27 October, which Fastmarkets called "quite tight". In Asia, the reference price eased to $3,069/t, and Japan's Q4 premium was settled at $255/t, 35% below Q3. Alumina rose 2.5% to $394.50/t. China produced 35.03 Mt in January–September, up 3.8%.

Forecasters still expect a surplus in 2027: CRU sees 1.4 Mt after a 711,000 t deficit this year.

EGA has restarted 631 of the 1,262 reduction cells at Al Taweelah, half the smelter, as of 21 October, and still targets full output in Q1 2027. Alba was running at about 80% of pre-war levels in September, exporting through Jeddah and Sohar.

Shipping through Hormuz remains minimal: Drewry reported only two vessel transits in the week to 29 October, after a wave of attacks earlier in the month. Gulf metal continues to move by costly overland and alternative-port routes.

The first EU trilogue on extending CBAM to downstream steel and aluminium products ended on 20 October without an overall agreement, according to press reports. Four issues remain open, two of them directly about aluminium: how the 50-tonne exemption applies to light finished goods, and whether pre-consumer scrap counts as a precursor. The next round is reported for 30 November. The proposed start date is 1 January 2028.

India's commerce minister said in mid-October that the first phase of the India–US trade deal is finalised and in legal drafting; on 29 October he said farmers' interests are fully protected. The US Trade Representative has said a deal is not imminent. Nothing has been signed.

No change to US Section 232 aluminium duties had been reported by 2 November: 50% on the full value of goods made almost entirely of aluminium, 25% for goods substantially of aluminium. US midterm elections take place today, 3 November; the USMCA review remains unsettled.

Drewry's World Container Index fell 3% to $4,429 per 40ft container on 29 October, after a 2% rise to $4,585 the week before. Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 1% to $3,686 and Shanghai–Genoa held at $4,151. Shanghai–Los Angeles fell 6% to $7,514 and Shanghai–New York 5% to $9,631.

Suez Canal transits rose to 62 vessels in the week, the highest weekly level this year. Drewry expects transpacific rates to fall further as US ocean imports are forecast to drop 11% month on month in November, and Asia–Europe rates to hold steady.

October dispatches rose across the board. Two-wheelers: Hero MotoCorp 7,34,403 (+16%), TVS Motor 6,70,679 (+28%), Bajaj Auto 5,01,194 (+13%) and Royal Enfield 1,33,442 (+7%). Cars and commercial vehicles: Mahindra & Mahindra 1,31,109 (+9%), Hyundai 82,299 (+17.7%), Tata Motors commercial vehicles 47,652 (+27%) and Ashok Leyland 21,888 (+23%). Electric two-wheeler registrations reached a record 2.23 lakh, up 48%, led by TVS (Vahan).

September-quarter results show strong demand but uneven margins. Maruti Suzuki said demand continued to outpace supply, with about 17 days of network inventory and roughly 2 lakh pending bookings, yet its operating margin fell to 8.9% from 12.0%. Industry-wide passenger vehicle dealer stock was 43–45 days at the end of September (FADA).

The EU plans to ban waste exports, including aluminium scrap, to non-OECD countries from no earlier than 2027; India takes about a third of EU aluminium scrap exports.