See the die casting industry as it really is.

LME cash aluminium fell from $3,254/t on 25 September to $3,109.5/t on 2 October, about 6.7% lower on the month but still around 14% above a year ago. China's August output hit a record 3.98 Mt, an annualised pace of about 46.7 Mt, above its 45 Mt cap, and its aluminium exports rose 17.2% year on year.

Yet LME stocks remain near multi-decade lows at about 240,600 t, and China's ADC12 die casting alloy held at RMB 24,500/t through the end of September.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains a fraction of pre-war levels, so Gulf producers are routing around it. Alba is back to about 80% of pre-war output, exporting through Jeddah and Sohar. EGA's Al Taweelah restoration reached 25% (315 of 1,262 cells) by late August, with full output targeted for Q1 2027.

On 30 September, EGA and Gulftainer agreed to export 250,000 t in the first year and 300,000 t in the second through Khor Fakkan on the UAE's east coast.

US Section 232 aluminium duties did not change in September. Duty applies to the full customs value of derivative products: 50% for goods made almost entirely of aluminium, 25% for goods substantially of aluminium, 10% for US-smelted and cast metal (85% US-content threshold), and 200% on Russian-origin metal. An August proposal to add 14 more derivative products does not include castings and has not been finalised.

The US imposed 50% duties on certain Canadian goods, including motor vehicles, from 22 August; Canada's counter-tariffs began on 8 September. The next US–Mexico USMCA review round has slipped to October. India's commerce minister and the US Trade Representative met in late September to work towards an early conclusion of the interim trade agreement.

Drewry reports week-39 Suez transits 68% higher than a year earlier, and Asia–Europe rates are falling. On 1 October, Shanghai–Rotterdam was $3,399 per 40ft container (−2% on the week) and Shanghai–Genoa $3,702 (−3%), while Shanghai–Los Angeles held at $7,835 and Shanghai–New York rose to $10,428. Gulf cargo is still routed via Jeddah and Khor Fakkan, and Gulf war-risk insurance remains elevated.

India had its best August on record: passenger vehicles up 36.5%, two-wheelers up 10.5% and three-wheelers up 22.8% (SIAM). September dispatches stayed strong, with Maruti Suzuki at 236,013 units (+24.4%) and Hyundai posting its best month at 77,916. Electric car registrations reached a record 36,010 in September.

The EU dropped a planned 15% export duty on aluminium scrap in mid-September, partly over India's concerns; India takes about a third of EU aluminium scrap exports. The European Parliament voted on 15 September to extend CBAM to about 457 downstream steel and aluminium product lines; it is not yet law.